As we reach the 80 day mark of intervention in Libya, NATO has extended their mission by another 90 days, though my guess is that we have only a week or two left. The conclusion of the Libyan revolution is so close I can taste it.
Russia, who initially abstained from voting on the imposition of the no-fly-plus on Libya, finally voiced its support for the National Transitional Coucil (NTC). Jordan has also recognized the NTC and is in the process of establishing a diplomatic mission in Benghazi.
On Monday eight high-ranking libyan officers (five of whom were generals) who had escaped to Italy called on the remaining few generals to follow their example, and abandon the regime. Estimates place the number of remaining generals at less then ten. The degradation of Qaddafi’s command and control can be seen in the utter failure of his military to achieve anything resembling success against anything other than lightly armed mountain villages.
The police and military enforcement in Tripoli are now making heavy use of motorcycles, instead of the trucks and jeeps that were previously the norm, suggesting that the fuel shortage is at a critical stage. The humanitarian situation in Tripoli is reaching disastrous proportions, with food and water almost gone.
Tripoli is now seeing small protests and guerrilla attacks against the government on a daily basis, and the NATO bombings have accelerated over the past few days. Rumor has it that Qaddafi is sleeping in Tripoli-area hospitals for fear of coalition airstrikes.
Meanwhile the RAF has started to use Apache helicopters, enabling much more precise targeting for their strikes (though this comes at a somewhat higher risk to the pilots).
South African president Jacob Zuma visited Libya on Monday and met with Qaddafi to discuss a peace settlement. The outcome of the conversation was pretty much a bust – Qaddafi is adamant in his refusal to step down, which is a deal-breaker for the NTC. (shortly after Zuma left Tripoli the city was subjected to a massive wave of NATO air strikes)
Overall, things are still going slowly and steadily against Qaddafi.
Anyone who uses the word "stalemate" is in denial and/or an idiot.
Showing posts with label Qaddafi. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Qaddafi. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Thursday, March 17, 2011
So there it is. No Fly Zone over Libya.
I wasn't crazy about the idea, but when the Arab League backed it I was somewhat mollified (and pretty much assumed that it was inevitable).
It'll be interesting to see who gets to enforce it. The nearest US carrier is in the Red Sea, and can't do it without flyover permission from Egypt. The French have a Harrier/VTOL carrier in the Med, and the British have a Helocarrier nearby, but neither is ideal for air-to-air combat against dedicated fighter jets.
Qaddafi should do some good speechmaking tonight.
It'll be interesting to see who gets to enforce it. The nearest US carrier is in the Red Sea, and can't do it without flyover permission from Egypt. The French have a Harrier/VTOL carrier in the Med, and the British have a Helocarrier nearby, but neither is ideal for air-to-air combat against dedicated fighter jets.
Qaddafi should do some good speechmaking tonight.
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Can Qaddafi regain control? Don't bet on it.
News from Libya over the past few days has been alternately frustrating and depressing. The momentum of the opposition forces seems to have broken as they reached Qaddafi’s main strongholds of Sirte (his hometown) and Tripoli (the capital). Once they lost their inertia, Gaddafi was able to begin concerted counterattacks. Despite being numerically outnumbered, Gaddafi’s remaining troops are his most loyal and by extension, the best equipped and best trained soldiers.
However, despite the pessimism on the part of many, it is important to note that a war of attrition would not favor Gaddafi. To preserve his primary advantage (better weapons and equipment) he needs a robust support system for his forces – something that only comes with money, supply chains, and loyalty. The elite soldiers may still support him, but the logistical components of his army will be much harder to retain - mechanics, cooks, truck drivers, etc. are what make a military function in the long run, and at this point they are only likely to carry the army’s burden while under duress. This goes double for the air force support crew. The more sorties a plane flies, the greater its need for careful maintenance and repair (just ask US helicopter crews in Afghanistan), and the higher the risk of serious systems failure.
Qaddafi may be able to recapture some of his lost ground, and he may even successfully retake some of his oil and gas production/refinement areas, but the only strategic advantages those will afford him are morale-related. He won’t be able to resume gas exports – the people who kept the refineries operating were the foreign workers who evacuated weeks ago, and the home-grown Libyan work force is notoriously inadequate. Large portions of his funds have been frozen, he has few trading partners for whatever oil he may have - maybe Venezuela, but they don’t really need oil, they make plenty of their own.
There is also some good news today. The Arab league has asked the UN to impose a no-fly zone over Libya. (It is worthwhile to note that the countries most resistant to the idea were Syria, Yemen, and Algeria – all countries that are dealing with some precarious political situations, and have used violence against their own citizenry or are likely to do so in the near future.). This paves the way for a multilateral projection of force that is less likely to bite the US in the ass later. I’ve been pretty critical of a US-led no-fly zone, but the explicit approval of the Arab League significantly assuages my concerns.
The White House has already responded positively to the Arab League's statement, and Hillary Clinton will be meeting with one of the main Libyan opposition leaders shortly.
The pace has been excruciating, but I believe that the long-term outcome will be a good one.
However, despite the pessimism on the part of many, it is important to note that a war of attrition would not favor Gaddafi. To preserve his primary advantage (better weapons and equipment) he needs a robust support system for his forces – something that only comes with money, supply chains, and loyalty. The elite soldiers may still support him, but the logistical components of his army will be much harder to retain - mechanics, cooks, truck drivers, etc. are what make a military function in the long run, and at this point they are only likely to carry the army’s burden while under duress. This goes double for the air force support crew. The more sorties a plane flies, the greater its need for careful maintenance and repair (just ask US helicopter crews in Afghanistan), and the higher the risk of serious systems failure.
Qaddafi may be able to recapture some of his lost ground, and he may even successfully retake some of his oil and gas production/refinement areas, but the only strategic advantages those will afford him are morale-related. He won’t be able to resume gas exports – the people who kept the refineries operating were the foreign workers who evacuated weeks ago, and the home-grown Libyan work force is notoriously inadequate. Large portions of his funds have been frozen, he has few trading partners for whatever oil he may have - maybe Venezuela, but they don’t really need oil, they make plenty of their own.
There is also some good news today. The Arab league has asked the UN to impose a no-fly zone over Libya. (It is worthwhile to note that the countries most resistant to the idea were Syria, Yemen, and Algeria – all countries that are dealing with some precarious political situations, and have used violence against their own citizenry or are likely to do so in the near future.). This paves the way for a multilateral projection of force that is less likely to bite the US in the ass later. I’ve been pretty critical of a US-led no-fly zone, but the explicit approval of the Arab League significantly assuages my concerns.
The White House has already responded positively to the Arab League's statement, and Hillary Clinton will be meeting with one of the main Libyan opposition leaders shortly.
The pace has been excruciating, but I believe that the long-term outcome will be a good one.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
We are Fires in the Night.
The big news today, as far as Libya is concerned (from an American perspective), is president Obama’s comments. Frustrating as it may have been to get little more than silence from the White House for the past several days, the logic behind their actions was solid, and fairly evident to those familiar with State Department procedure. Despite the horrific nature of the events on the ground in Libya, the American president’s primary obligation is the safety of his own citizens, and in this case (given that he was dealing with an individual of obviously unsound mind), it was imperative that the American embassy staff be evacuated before any substantive action could be taken.
If the White House had come out strongly against Gaddafi earlier (while American embassy staff were still on the ground in Tripoli) there was a very real possibility that Gaddafi might retaliate, using State Department employees as leverage, or even as targets for violence. It is worthwhile to note that his comments on Libya came barely minutes after the last plane of Americans had taken off from Tripoli.
Obama’s comments today were probably the ones he wanted to make several days ago, and although they carried with them no overtures of force projection, the way things look on the ground that won’t be necessary anyway.
So, where do things stand?
At this point, it’s pretty obvious that the regime’s timeline is down to its last hours - maybe 24, possibly 48. The regime has been madly shedding diplomats and officials for several days now, and with the end in sight, even the most obstinate and myopic supporters of the regime are probably weighting their options (which, at this point probably aren’t much better than
1. Suicide
2. Death at the hands of an angry mob
3. A public trial for their crimes against the Libyan people.
Frankly, I’d like to see a trial, but that raises an interesting point.
Two days ago I was on the phone with my saintly Quaker grandmother. Although she knew that there was something happening in Libya, she professed ignorance as to the specific details. Given my own compulsive inclination towards exposition and contextualization, I gave her a two-minute summary that covered the scope and scale of the protests, the horrific acts by mercenaries and military, and the inevitability of the regime’s demise.
“At this point,” I said, “Qaddafi will probably go out like Cheaucesceeu or Mussolini, but personally, I’d like to see him in front of an international Court of Justice.”
“Ehh...What good would that do?” She said In an offhand manner. “Maybe one of his soldiers will shoot him.”
Now...the vast majority of the people reading this probably don’t grasp the magnitude of that statement, but when my grandmother - one of the sweetest most peace-loving and nonviolent people I’ve ever known in my life - casually tosses out tacit approval of extrajudicial execution…well…there’s not much more that can be said.
Hey Qaddafi! Even pacifists think you need to be put down like the rabid badger that you are.
***
I’m trying to pull together two more solid and substantive blogs for this weekend, but I can’t guarantee that I’ll get both of them out before Monday. I should get at least one of them out tomorrow, and it’ll be a good one (I think).
I’ll say the same thing this week that I was saying last week...in the same way that Egypt was consuming all of the available “media oxygen” then, Libya is doing the same thing now. Very important things have been happening in many other countries, and they should certainly be addressed…I‘ll try to get there...
***
Just one interesting final point before I conclude this post - the situation in Libya has had a rather interesting and unexpected impact in Venezuela that is addressed here. I highly recommend that you read the article, but to sum up, Hugo Chavez’s state-run media mouthpiece sent a media team to Libya several days ago when the situation was beginning to crest. Because of Chavez’s fairly strong relationship with Qaddafi, the news network painted a picture that was entirely in line with Qaddafi’s personal perception of the situation, but so far detached from reality that it has made them the laughingstock of the Venezuelan population. Although Chavez has built his political career on the gullibility of a large portion of the Venezuelan community, the obvious disconnect between the messaging of the state TV and every other available information source has been comedic, dramatic, and unignorable.
Gaddafi has done us another favor - he has shown Venezuelan state television to be nothing more than government funded liars.
Thanks Gaddafi!
***
More to come tomorrow.
In the meantime, I just found out about Band of Skulls...aren’t they awesome?
If the White House had come out strongly against Gaddafi earlier (while American embassy staff were still on the ground in Tripoli) there was a very real possibility that Gaddafi might retaliate, using State Department employees as leverage, or even as targets for violence. It is worthwhile to note that his comments on Libya came barely minutes after the last plane of Americans had taken off from Tripoli.
Obama’s comments today were probably the ones he wanted to make several days ago, and although they carried with them no overtures of force projection, the way things look on the ground that won’t be necessary anyway.
So, where do things stand?
At this point, it’s pretty obvious that the regime’s timeline is down to its last hours - maybe 24, possibly 48. The regime has been madly shedding diplomats and officials for several days now, and with the end in sight, even the most obstinate and myopic supporters of the regime are probably weighting their options (which, at this point probably aren’t much better than
1. Suicide
2. Death at the hands of an angry mob
3. A public trial for their crimes against the Libyan people.
Frankly, I’d like to see a trial, but that raises an interesting point.
Two days ago I was on the phone with my saintly Quaker grandmother. Although she knew that there was something happening in Libya, she professed ignorance as to the specific details. Given my own compulsive inclination towards exposition and contextualization, I gave her a two-minute summary that covered the scope and scale of the protests, the horrific acts by mercenaries and military, and the inevitability of the regime’s demise.
“At this point,” I said, “Qaddafi will probably go out like Cheaucesceeu or Mussolini, but personally, I’d like to see him in front of an international Court of Justice.”
“Ehh...What good would that do?” She said In an offhand manner. “Maybe one of his soldiers will shoot him.”
Now...the vast majority of the people reading this probably don’t grasp the magnitude of that statement, but when my grandmother - one of the sweetest most peace-loving and nonviolent people I’ve ever known in my life - casually tosses out tacit approval of extrajudicial execution…well…there’s not much more that can be said.
Hey Qaddafi! Even pacifists think you need to be put down like the rabid badger that you are.
***
I’m trying to pull together two more solid and substantive blogs for this weekend, but I can’t guarantee that I’ll get both of them out before Monday. I should get at least one of them out tomorrow, and it’ll be a good one (I think).
I’ll say the same thing this week that I was saying last week...in the same way that Egypt was consuming all of the available “media oxygen” then, Libya is doing the same thing now. Very important things have been happening in many other countries, and they should certainly be addressed…I‘ll try to get there...
***
Just one interesting final point before I conclude this post - the situation in Libya has had a rather interesting and unexpected impact in Venezuela that is addressed here. I highly recommend that you read the article, but to sum up, Hugo Chavez’s state-run media mouthpiece sent a media team to Libya several days ago when the situation was beginning to crest. Because of Chavez’s fairly strong relationship with Qaddafi, the news network painted a picture that was entirely in line with Qaddafi’s personal perception of the situation, but so far detached from reality that it has made them the laughingstock of the Venezuelan population. Although Chavez has built his political career on the gullibility of a large portion of the Venezuelan community, the obvious disconnect between the messaging of the state TV and every other available information source has been comedic, dramatic, and unignorable.
Gaddafi has done us another favor - he has shown Venezuelan state television to be nothing more than government funded liars.
Thanks Gaddafi!
***
More to come tomorrow.
In the meantime, I just found out about Band of Skulls...aren’t they awesome?
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Gaddafi’s gift to the Middle East.
It’s a funny thing, but Gaddafi has really done us all a favor here.
As I said yesterday, he has secured himself a place on the list of history’s most hated leaders. Like a predator who shits in the carcass of his prey to spoil the meat for those who come after him, Gaddafi has done his best to ruin his country - one world or none, you might say.
I will not waste print with accusations of malfeasance - there will be plenty of time for that in the days and weeks to come. Instead I want to extend a measure of thanks to him on behalf of the Middle East.
Thank you Gaddafi.
Thank you for reminding the other dictators what tyranny looks like to the rest of the world.
Many years ago you made yourself into an icon of sociopathic megalomania - this week you have taken that to it’s logical conclusion.
Sure, the scale of your destruction won’t reach the magnitude of Pol Pot, or Mao, or Stalin, or Mussolini, or the other butchers of the 20th century. What will set you apart from them is the extent to which it is being watched by the world.
You unleashed ruthless foreign mercenaries on your own people and within hours the pictures of the dead and wounded were spread across the internet.
You made incoherent mumbling denunciations from underneath an umbrella on a rainy night and the whole world was mocking you before the sun was up the next day.
It’s not what you did, it’s that we all saw it as it happened.
You are now a symbol of what not to do.
If, for example, the people of Syria start to flood the streets of Damascus demanding their dignity and their basic freedoms, Bashar al-Assad will have to choose his course of action carefully lest he be labeled "another Gaddafi"
The Iranian government must now step a bit more gingerly when dealing with their own angry youth in order to distinguish themselves from the wickedness of the Libyan regime.
Bahrain and Yemen now have to second guess the potential repercussions from their own acts of violence against their subjects and citizens.
Force is no longer a reliable guarantee of regime survival, and brutality is harder and harder to enact unnoticed. The cost of control has risen sharply over the past few days.
Gaddafi has given the world, and particularly the Middle East, a striking lesson in what no longer works.
(Minor follow-up - congratulations Brother Leader, the statisticians over at fivethirtyeight.com have determined you to be the #1 ranked dictator)
As I said yesterday, he has secured himself a place on the list of history’s most hated leaders. Like a predator who shits in the carcass of his prey to spoil the meat for those who come after him, Gaddafi has done his best to ruin his country - one world or none, you might say.
I will not waste print with accusations of malfeasance - there will be plenty of time for that in the days and weeks to come. Instead I want to extend a measure of thanks to him on behalf of the Middle East.
Thank you Gaddafi.
Thank you for reminding the other dictators what tyranny looks like to the rest of the world.
Many years ago you made yourself into an icon of sociopathic megalomania - this week you have taken that to it’s logical conclusion.
Sure, the scale of your destruction won’t reach the magnitude of Pol Pot, or Mao, or Stalin, or Mussolini, or the other butchers of the 20th century. What will set you apart from them is the extent to which it is being watched by the world.
You unleashed ruthless foreign mercenaries on your own people and within hours the pictures of the dead and wounded were spread across the internet.
You made incoherent mumbling denunciations from underneath an umbrella on a rainy night and the whole world was mocking you before the sun was up the next day.
It’s not what you did, it’s that we all saw it as it happened.
You are now a symbol of what not to do.
If, for example, the people of Syria start to flood the streets of Damascus demanding their dignity and their basic freedoms, Bashar al-Assad will have to choose his course of action carefully lest he be labeled "another Gaddafi"
The Iranian government must now step a bit more gingerly when dealing with their own angry youth in order to distinguish themselves from the wickedness of the Libyan regime.
Bahrain and Yemen now have to second guess the potential repercussions from their own acts of violence against their subjects and citizens.
Force is no longer a reliable guarantee of regime survival, and brutality is harder and harder to enact unnoticed. The cost of control has risen sharply over the past few days.
Gaddafi has given the world, and particularly the Middle East, a striking lesson in what no longer works.
(Minor follow-up - congratulations Brother Leader, the statisticians over at fivethirtyeight.com have determined you to be the #1 ranked dictator)
Minor update
Lots of people doing excellent updates now - I'll be posting some analysis later today when I get home.
In the meantime, you may find today's post at the Arabist interesting.
He links to a continuously updated google map tracking the status of the various Libyan towns and cities and whether they are government or protester controlled.
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=208005345448417215163.00049cf3a2cdebe5bd17f
In the meantime, you may find today's post at the Arabist interesting.
He links to a continuously updated google map tracking the status of the various Libyan towns and cities and whether they are government or protester controlled.
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=208005345448417215163.00049cf3a2cdebe5bd17f
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Hey Gaddafi - as they say in Serbia, "May your house be live on CNN"
Well, seems the die is cast.
In an attempt to make up for last night’s “crazy man with an umbrella mumbling in a truck” speech, brother leader pulled out all the stops today. Raving lunacy on the world stage.
To mix metaphors, the Colonel has decided to go down with the ship of state, and really, why did I even think he would have gone any other way?
There was a point four days ago - before mercenaries were machine-gunning people in the streets of Benghazi, before hundreds of soldiers were executed for their refusal to fire on civilians, before fighter planes were strafing crowds of protesters, before artillery batteries were shelling cities, before ministers and ambassadors were jumping ship on live television around the world - There was a moment when it could have all gone differently.
He could have been a hero (or even "an hero"). He could have been everything that he thought he was in his own mind. Qaddafi holds no official title, and he has always claimed that it was the Libyan people who governed themselves and not he who held the reins.
He could have turned it all over to the people of Libya, given them the oil wealth and opportunity that was their birthright, disengaged himself from his position of authority and become one of the great African altruists. He could have ensured that his sons held positions of respect and honor in Libya for as long as they lived. He could have kept working towards the creation of the United States of Africa, and been remembered better for his final years and for those that came before.
He could have become what he always thought he was.
"the leader of the Arab leaders, the king of kings of Africa and the imam of the Muslims,"
Well, apparently that’s not going to happen.
Like the proverbial scorpion who stung the frog halfway across the river, some time last week Gaddafi‘s soul - the withered black selfish thing that it is - simply shrugged and said, “it is in my nature to do these things. I am a scorpion, I cannot help but sting”
Gaddafi, welcome to the list of history’s most hated.
I almost didn’t think you’d make it.
In an attempt to make up for last night’s “crazy man with an umbrella mumbling in a truck” speech, brother leader pulled out all the stops today. Raving lunacy on the world stage.
To mix metaphors, the Colonel has decided to go down with the ship of state, and really, why did I even think he would have gone any other way?
There was a point four days ago - before mercenaries were machine-gunning people in the streets of Benghazi, before hundreds of soldiers were executed for their refusal to fire on civilians, before fighter planes were strafing crowds of protesters, before artillery batteries were shelling cities, before ministers and ambassadors were jumping ship on live television around the world - There was a moment when it could have all gone differently.
He could have been a hero (or even "an hero"). He could have been everything that he thought he was in his own mind. Qaddafi holds no official title, and he has always claimed that it was the Libyan people who governed themselves and not he who held the reins.
He could have turned it all over to the people of Libya, given them the oil wealth and opportunity that was their birthright, disengaged himself from his position of authority and become one of the great African altruists. He could have ensured that his sons held positions of respect and honor in Libya for as long as they lived. He could have kept working towards the creation of the United States of Africa, and been remembered better for his final years and for those that came before.
He could have become what he always thought he was.
"the leader of the Arab leaders, the king of kings of Africa and the imam of the Muslims,"
Well, apparently that’s not going to happen.
Like the proverbial scorpion who stung the frog halfway across the river, some time last week Gaddafi‘s soul - the withered black selfish thing that it is - simply shrugged and said, “it is in my nature to do these things. I am a scorpion, I cannot help but sting”
Gaddafi, welcome to the list of history’s most hated.
I almost didn’t think you’d make it.
Monday, February 21, 2011
Another week begins.
What now?
Quite a weekend for me. Yesterday my page had some 400 hits in a 24-hour period, a pretty dramatic record, considering I was averaging about a hundred hits a day previous to that (though I’ve only been doing this seriously for less than a month).
I’m pretty happy with my coverage of the situation with Libya, given that much of what I was reporting on the 19th is finally making it into the mainstream news. This raises a point (or two) I’d like to clarify for the sake of my reading audience - I am not a journalist. In this current situation that is something of an advantage. The situation on the ground is so chaotic that by the time a single event can be confirmed and verified, the larger situation has already changed dramatically. In Libya, the news that was three hours old might as well have been news that was a day old, and news that was a day old was still being vetted for accuracy by the international news agencies.
For me to rely on insider commentary, twitter feeds, uploaded YouTube videos, and hastily posted messages and audio files on poorly put together webpages is rather dangerous.
Hyperbole, confusion, mistranslation, panic, misinformation, wishful thinking, personal bias, and deliberate propaganda are all factors that must be taken into consideration when relaying information from the sources. I am, essentially, flying by the seat of my pants and hoping that my own knowledge and critical thinking capabilities are sufficient to the task at hand. Only time will tell how right or wrong I’ve been in my assessments (although frankly, I think I’ve been doing pretty well all things considered).
Fortunately, no one’s making policy decisions based on my read on the Middle East (I hope).
Frankly, I don’t think anybody’s making any policy decisions at all at the moment. Right now, everyone’s in tactical mode rather than strategic mode, and that’s not likely to change until the situation becomes a wee bit less volatile.
Anyway, thanks for reading. By the way, while on the topic, I know that many of you are educated and intelligent people - if you read something here that strikes you as being questionable, or flat out wrong, please, please, please feel free to address i. I’d rather be publicly corrected than publicly wrong.
Now, on to the material at hand:
***
Libya - I really think this is the end of the line for the Libyan regime. As I mentioned yesterday, al-arrabiyya reported that Qaddafi had left the country for South America (Brazil or Venezuela). Unfortunately, no one else is supporting it, so I can't vouch for its accuracy at this point.
One of Qaddafi's sons, Seif al-Islam, gave an unintentionally hilarious off-the-cuff speech last night (I hope it was off-the-cuff, if those were his prepared remarks then that boy needs help). Several translations can be found, and I highly recommend that you read it in full, it’s full of crazy little gems like,
or this one:
Ayyad elBaghdadi did a real-time translation of the speech on the fly via twitter and at the end of it said, “I feel stupider just for having written it down”.
The level of denial is a full magnitude higher than Mubarak’s was during his final speech, but as funny as the whole thing may be for us abroad, the situation on the ground for Libyans is incredibly grim. As I said before, it is impossible to overstate the bravery of the Libyan people at this point. After the past three days of conflict, everyone in the streets knows that death is a strong likelihood.
Although the general populace, large numbers of the tribally affiliated population, and many members of both the army and the police have joined with the uprising, the Libyan government has three pillars of support:
The Elite military, led by one of Qaddafi’s sons, and heavily staffed with regimes loyalists, these people are not merely fighting at the whim of the leadership, they are likely fighting for their own lives, and as such will not be pulling punches when it comes to combat (this is no longer crowd control, this Is all-out combat)
The Libyan Air Force, which draws heavily from the Qadhadfa (Qaddafi’s own tribe) for its pilots and officers. Family loyalty is essential here as are old tribal rivalries. Unsurprisingly, nepotistic favoritism has been very good to Qaddafi’s tribe, but very problematic for inter-tribal relations. (Short article on this here) Additionally, it’s a lot easier to kill people from a fighter plane than it is with a machine gun. Bombing of major urban areas has already been reported, and I just don’t know how long it will take to get the situation under control. If the ground crews to stop supporting sorties, then it could end sooner than later, but I honestly have absolutely no idea what the likelihood of something like that is.
The mercenary forces who have been confirmed in Benghazi and several other places are the third pillar of regime support, and the most unpredictable. They are reportedly from places like Chad, Bangladesh and (? Niger), and they don’t stand a chance of survival if captured. Many of the worst atrocities witnessed in Benghazi and other eastern cities have been attributed to the mercenaries, and they have shown their contempt for the general populace through their ruthless violence. At this point they probably just want to escape with their lives, and there’s a good chance that many of them won’t. Well armed, terrified man with few options are capable of truly horrific things.
That being said, I don’t think the government’s resistance is sustainable. The only question is how much damage will they unleash on the populace before they are taken down? (Check out Dirk Vanderwall’s analysis here) Plus his book is right there on the sidebar ---->
***
Yemen - I’m sorry to say I haven’t had a lot of time to follow Yemen, given the situation in Libya, but a few things should be mentioned: The president has refused to step down. The violence has been steadily escalating, though not nearly to the same degree as Libya. Good ongoing analysis here.
**
Iran - Hard to say. The green movement Is no longer concerned with the president, at this point they’ve set their sights on being supreme leader himself, Kahmeini. This implies a restructuring of the entire Iranian political system, rather than just political reform, and the chances for success are anyone’s guess at this point.
The protests have continued steadily, with building intensity, but nothing on the scale that we witnessed back in 2009. Thousands in the streets at times, but not hundreds of thousands.
An interesting rumor has been circulating, saying that Hezbollah members have been supporting the Iranian regime during crackdowns on protesters. Similar rumors were circulating in 2009, but were never confirmed. It should be mentioned here that such a thing is possible but, it is also quite possible that the rumor is a piece of targeted propaganda intended to drive a wedge between the green movement protesters and the regime’s support for militant Shiite activity abroad.
***
This is particularly interesting because in Bahrain the government is accusing Hezbollah of giving support to the protesters in the Pearl roundabout (now being called martyr's roundabout). While on that topic, the situation in Bahrain doesn’t seem to be moving towards resolution yet. The protesters continue to occupy the roundabout, and the government continues to make unsuccessful overtures towards resolution along with halfhearted moves towards another round of crackdowns. The acts of violence of the past few days seem to have quieted down, but there are still reports of a strong Saudi presence on the ground.
Nicholas Kristoff has a good piece up in the NYT today
***
Saudi Arabia has been awfully quiet lately. As Napoleon said, never interrupt your enemy when he is busy making a mistake. Libya and Egypt and Iran have all been longtime competitors and/or opponents of the Saudi regime, and the Saudi royal family is doubtless watching these events extremely closely as they unfold. Although their position is not nearly as precarious as that of the various North African regimes, the events in Bahrain must be incredibly worrying to them. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have very close relationships, and although Saudi Arabia does not share Bahrain’s large disenfranchised Shiite population, they do, nonetheless, have a significant concentration of Shiites in their Eastern oil producing territories. Actions by the Bahraini government against its Shi’a population, particularly with the support of the Saudi military, could create serious tensions within Saudi Arabia’s small but defiant Shiite population.
***
One last point (I may post another update later today) Morocco was the scene of several major protests yesterday - some good recap and analysis can be found here. The vast majority of these protests were peaceful, with the exception of one in Tangier that degenerated into rioting and looting. I suspect that if the Moroccan government is able to mitigate the response in show clear signs of attentiveness and responsiveness to the needs of their citizens, they’ll be okay. If, however, the violence expands and the government is overly heavy-handed in its response, then I’ll have to move Morocco from the “safe” column and into the “regimes in play” column.
***
Many more links and much more extensive information on the greater middle east can be found in today's post at the Arabist: http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/2/21/sehams-regional-links-2011-02-21.html
Quite a weekend for me. Yesterday my page had some 400 hits in a 24-hour period, a pretty dramatic record, considering I was averaging about a hundred hits a day previous to that (though I’ve only been doing this seriously for less than a month).
I’m pretty happy with my coverage of the situation with Libya, given that much of what I was reporting on the 19th is finally making it into the mainstream news. This raises a point (or two) I’d like to clarify for the sake of my reading audience - I am not a journalist. In this current situation that is something of an advantage. The situation on the ground is so chaotic that by the time a single event can be confirmed and verified, the larger situation has already changed dramatically. In Libya, the news that was three hours old might as well have been news that was a day old, and news that was a day old was still being vetted for accuracy by the international news agencies.
For me to rely on insider commentary, twitter feeds, uploaded YouTube videos, and hastily posted messages and audio files on poorly put together webpages is rather dangerous.
Hyperbole, confusion, mistranslation, panic, misinformation, wishful thinking, personal bias, and deliberate propaganda are all factors that must be taken into consideration when relaying information from the sources. I am, essentially, flying by the seat of my pants and hoping that my own knowledge and critical thinking capabilities are sufficient to the task at hand. Only time will tell how right or wrong I’ve been in my assessments (although frankly, I think I’ve been doing pretty well all things considered).
Fortunately, no one’s making policy decisions based on my read on the Middle East (I hope).
Frankly, I don’t think anybody’s making any policy decisions at all at the moment. Right now, everyone’s in tactical mode rather than strategic mode, and that’s not likely to change until the situation becomes a wee bit less volatile.
Anyway, thanks for reading. By the way, while on the topic, I know that many of you are educated and intelligent people - if you read something here that strikes you as being questionable, or flat out wrong, please, please, please feel free to address i. I’d rather be publicly corrected than publicly wrong.
Now, on to the material at hand:
***
Libya - I really think this is the end of the line for the Libyan regime. As I mentioned yesterday, al-arrabiyya reported that Qaddafi had left the country for South America (Brazil or Venezuela). Unfortunately, no one else is supporting it, so I can't vouch for its accuracy at this point.
One of Qaddafi's sons, Seif al-Islam, gave an unintentionally hilarious off-the-cuff speech last night (I hope it was off-the-cuff, if those were his prepared remarks then that boy needs help). Several translations can be found, and I highly recommend that you read it in full, it’s full of crazy little gems like,
We all now have arms. At this time drunks are driving tanks in central Benghazi. So we all now have weapons. The powers who want to destroy Libya have weapons. There will be a war & no future. All the firms will leave, we have 500 housing units being built, they won't be completed. Remember my words. 200 billion dollars of projects are now underway, they won't be finished.
or this one:
The army said that some protesters were drunk, others were on hallucinogens or drugs. The army has to defend its weapons. And the people were angry. So there were deaths, but in the end Libyans were killed.
There are thee parts behind this
1- Political Activists whom we agree with,
2- What happened in Bayda are Islamic elements. Bayda is my town, my mother is from there. People called me. They stole weapons and killed soldiers. They want to establish an Islamic Emirate in Bayda. Some people took drugs & were used by these protesters.
3. The third part are these children who took the drugs and were used. These are facts like it or not.
2- What happened in Bayda are Islamic elements. Bayda is my town, my mother is from there. People called me. They stole weapons and killed soldiers. They want to establish an Islamic Emirate in Bayda. Some people took drugs & were used by these protesters.
3. The third part are these children who took the drugs and were used. These are facts like it or not.
The level of denial is a full magnitude higher than Mubarak’s was during his final speech, but as funny as the whole thing may be for us abroad, the situation on the ground for Libyans is incredibly grim. As I said before, it is impossible to overstate the bravery of the Libyan people at this point. After the past three days of conflict, everyone in the streets knows that death is a strong likelihood.
Although the general populace, large numbers of the tribally affiliated population, and many members of both the army and the police have joined with the uprising, the Libyan government has three pillars of support:
The Elite military, led by one of Qaddafi’s sons, and heavily staffed with regimes loyalists, these people are not merely fighting at the whim of the leadership, they are likely fighting for their own lives, and as such will not be pulling punches when it comes to combat (this is no longer crowd control, this Is all-out combat)
The Libyan Air Force, which draws heavily from the Qadhadfa (Qaddafi’s own tribe) for its pilots and officers. Family loyalty is essential here as are old tribal rivalries. Unsurprisingly, nepotistic favoritism has been very good to Qaddafi’s tribe, but very problematic for inter-tribal relations. (Short article on this here) Additionally, it’s a lot easier to kill people from a fighter plane than it is with a machine gun. Bombing of major urban areas has already been reported, and I just don’t know how long it will take to get the situation under control. If the ground crews to stop supporting sorties, then it could end sooner than later, but I honestly have absolutely no idea what the likelihood of something like that is.
The mercenary forces who have been confirmed in Benghazi and several other places are the third pillar of regime support, and the most unpredictable. They are reportedly from places like Chad, Bangladesh and (? Niger), and they don’t stand a chance of survival if captured. Many of the worst atrocities witnessed in Benghazi and other eastern cities have been attributed to the mercenaries, and they have shown their contempt for the general populace through their ruthless violence. At this point they probably just want to escape with their lives, and there’s a good chance that many of them won’t. Well armed, terrified man with few options are capable of truly horrific things.
That being said, I don’t think the government’s resistance is sustainable. The only question is how much damage will they unleash on the populace before they are taken down? (Check out Dirk Vanderwall’s analysis here) Plus his book is right there on the sidebar ---->
***
Yemen - I’m sorry to say I haven’t had a lot of time to follow Yemen, given the situation in Libya, but a few things should be mentioned: The president has refused to step down. The violence has been steadily escalating, though not nearly to the same degree as Libya. Good ongoing analysis here.
**
Iran - Hard to say. The green movement Is no longer concerned with the president, at this point they’ve set their sights on being supreme leader himself, Kahmeini. This implies a restructuring of the entire Iranian political system, rather than just political reform, and the chances for success are anyone’s guess at this point.
The protests have continued steadily, with building intensity, but nothing on the scale that we witnessed back in 2009. Thousands in the streets at times, but not hundreds of thousands.
An interesting rumor has been circulating, saying that Hezbollah members have been supporting the Iranian regime during crackdowns on protesters. Similar rumors were circulating in 2009, but were never confirmed. It should be mentioned here that such a thing is possible but, it is also quite possible that the rumor is a piece of targeted propaganda intended to drive a wedge between the green movement protesters and the regime’s support for militant Shiite activity abroad.
***
This is particularly interesting because in Bahrain the government is accusing Hezbollah of giving support to the protesters in the Pearl roundabout (now being called martyr's roundabout). While on that topic, the situation in Bahrain doesn’t seem to be moving towards resolution yet. The protesters continue to occupy the roundabout, and the government continues to make unsuccessful overtures towards resolution along with halfhearted moves towards another round of crackdowns. The acts of violence of the past few days seem to have quieted down, but there are still reports of a strong Saudi presence on the ground.
Nicholas Kristoff has a good piece up in the NYT today
***
Saudi Arabia has been awfully quiet lately. As Napoleon said, never interrupt your enemy when he is busy making a mistake. Libya and Egypt and Iran have all been longtime competitors and/or opponents of the Saudi regime, and the Saudi royal family is doubtless watching these events extremely closely as they unfold. Although their position is not nearly as precarious as that of the various North African regimes, the events in Bahrain must be incredibly worrying to them. Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have very close relationships, and although Saudi Arabia does not share Bahrain’s large disenfranchised Shiite population, they do, nonetheless, have a significant concentration of Shiites in their Eastern oil producing territories. Actions by the Bahraini government against its Shi’a population, particularly with the support of the Saudi military, could create serious tensions within Saudi Arabia’s small but defiant Shiite population.
***
One last point (I may post another update later today) Morocco was the scene of several major protests yesterday - some good recap and analysis can be found here. The vast majority of these protests were peaceful, with the exception of one in Tangier that degenerated into rioting and looting. I suspect that if the Moroccan government is able to mitigate the response in show clear signs of attentiveness and responsiveness to the needs of their citizens, they’ll be okay. If, however, the violence expands and the government is overly heavy-handed in its response, then I’ll have to move Morocco from the “safe” column and into the “regimes in play” column.
***
Many more links and much more extensive information on the greater middle east can be found in today's post at the Arabist: http://www.arabist.net/blog/2011/2/21/sehams-regional-links-2011-02-21.html
Saturday, February 19, 2011
All-out revolution is underway in Libya.
So, Libya again.
As I’ve said before, the situation in Libya is incredibly important. It’s also unique in many respects.
Although Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt are all nearby, Libya differs from them significantly in its degree of isolation. America has had working relationships with Algeria Egypt and Tunisia for quite some time, whereas our relations with Libya have only recently, and very slowly been thawing.neither the US government nor the US media have any substantial presence on the ground there.
Right now, what is going on in Libya is unlike the protests anywhere else in the Middle East. Certainly, the violence in Bahrain and Yemen is jarring and horrific, but Libya is undergoing something of an entirely different stripe. While the government of Bahrain has turned to its allies in Saudi Arabia for support in suppressing public protests, and the Yemeni government lacks the stability for a coherent response to the uprisings in their streets, Libya is undergoing an all out war.
War.
Battles for entire cities and towns are currently underway. Helicopters are shooting at crowds, and government hired mercenaries (reportedly non-Libyan french-speaking Africans) are gunning people down in the streets. Body count estimates at this point are into the hundreds, but I would suspect they are, in actuality, much higher.
The current strategy being used by the government speaks to the precariousness of their situation. The fact that mercenaries have been deployed in cities suggests that the leadership does not fully trust its own soldiers to do the dirty work, and there have been reports of soldiers being beaten for refusing to fire on civilians and even some areas where the military seems to have joined with the protesters.
The intensity of the uprisings seem to have taken the government by surprise, oddly enough. Or perhaps the Libyan Army isn’t all that good at logistics, or perhaps there is turmoil within the ranks. For whatever reason, there weren’t enough troops in place to control the situation when it began, and protester have seized two of the airfields in western Libya that were being used to reinforce the troops.
There have also been reports that some of the mercenaries have seized hundreds of hostages, and are demanding that they be allowed to leave safely in exchange for the release of their prisoners.
Benghazi was one of the first cities to rise up, and as a result of it has been the target of the heaviest attacks by Libyan military and the heaviest fighting. Hospitals are reportedly full of the dead and injured, the soldiers on the ground are shooting to kill, and Libyan voices are calling the government’s actions there “massacre”.
The extent of the situation is still unclear, but there are reports that the military has joined with the revolting citizens to free al-bayda and are headed to Benghazi to support the people in the streets there. There are also reports that the Libyan government is sending in more mercenaries to the conflict areas.
It’s basically become impossible to follow, but you can catch up here:
http://www.libyafeb17.com/ is pretty comprehensive,
I've also been following these four twitter feeds http://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi and http://twitter.com/ShababLibya and http://twitter.com/EnoughGaddafi and http://twitter.com/libi4ever
Al Jezeera has a Libya live blog, but it's not as thorough as it should be
The Libyan government did shut down the internet yesterday, but parts of it seem to be back up.(Which is a good thing for bit.ly and anyone else using a .ly suffix)
The most comprehensive site for the situation on the ground is here:
http://www.libya-/letters/v2011a/v31jan11z.htm#n18feb116 (run through Google translate). Be warned - there are very graphic pictures of dead protesters on this page. This site will tell you more than you want to know about the situation right now.
This video is from the libya-watanona.com page - it's mostly protest footage, but be warned, there are some graphic images of the dead and wounded in the video as well.
Oh, yea, and Gaddafi's leadership congress has pledged a change in government administrators. Yea, that'll fix the situation.
As I’ve said before, the situation in Libya is incredibly important. It’s also unique in many respects.
Although Algeria, Tunisia, and Egypt are all nearby, Libya differs from them significantly in its degree of isolation. America has had working relationships with Algeria Egypt and Tunisia for quite some time, whereas our relations with Libya have only recently, and very slowly been thawing.neither the US government nor the US media have any substantial presence on the ground there.
Right now, what is going on in Libya is unlike the protests anywhere else in the Middle East. Certainly, the violence in Bahrain and Yemen is jarring and horrific, but Libya is undergoing something of an entirely different stripe. While the government of Bahrain has turned to its allies in Saudi Arabia for support in suppressing public protests, and the Yemeni government lacks the stability for a coherent response to the uprisings in their streets, Libya is undergoing an all out war.
War.
Battles for entire cities and towns are currently underway. Helicopters are shooting at crowds, and government hired mercenaries (reportedly non-Libyan french-speaking Africans) are gunning people down in the streets. Body count estimates at this point are into the hundreds, but I would suspect they are, in actuality, much higher.
The current strategy being used by the government speaks to the precariousness of their situation. The fact that mercenaries have been deployed in cities suggests that the leadership does not fully trust its own soldiers to do the dirty work, and there have been reports of soldiers being beaten for refusing to fire on civilians and even some areas where the military seems to have joined with the protesters.
The intensity of the uprisings seem to have taken the government by surprise, oddly enough. Or perhaps the Libyan Army isn’t all that good at logistics, or perhaps there is turmoil within the ranks. For whatever reason, there weren’t enough troops in place to control the situation when it began, and protester have seized two of the airfields in western Libya that were being used to reinforce the troops.
There have also been reports that some of the mercenaries have seized hundreds of hostages, and are demanding that they be allowed to leave safely in exchange for the release of their prisoners.
Benghazi was one of the first cities to rise up, and as a result of it has been the target of the heaviest attacks by Libyan military and the heaviest fighting. Hospitals are reportedly full of the dead and injured, the soldiers on the ground are shooting to kill, and Libyan voices are calling the government’s actions there “massacre”.
The extent of the situation is still unclear, but there are reports that the military has joined with the revolting citizens to free al-bayda and are headed to Benghazi to support the people in the streets there. There are also reports that the Libyan government is sending in more mercenaries to the conflict areas.
It’s basically become impossible to follow, but you can catch up here:
http://www.libyafeb17.com/ is pretty comprehensive,
I've also been following these four twitter feeds http://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi and http://twitter.com/ShababLibya and http://twitter.com/EnoughGaddafi and http://twitter.com/libi4ever
Al Jezeera has a Libya live blog, but it's not as thorough as it should be
The Libyan government did shut down the internet yesterday, but parts of it seem to be back up.(Which is a good thing for bit.ly and anyone else using a .ly suffix)
The most comprehensive site for the situation on the ground is here:
http://www.libya-/letters/v2011a/v31jan11z.htm#n18feb116 (run through Google translate). Be warned - there are very graphic pictures of dead protesters on this page. This site will tell you more than you want to know about the situation right now.
This video is from the libya-watanona.com page - it's mostly protest footage, but be warned, there are some graphic images of the dead and wounded in the video as well.
Oh, yea, and Gaddafi's leadership congress has pledged a change in government administrators. Yea, that'll fix the situation.
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Libya. Now.
I mentioned last week that Ghaddafi had been awfully quiet lately. Well, apparently his mouth is run out of patience. On Sunday he announced that … “Palestinian refugees should capitalize on the wave of popular revolts in the Middle East by massing peacefully on the borders of Israel until it gives in to their demands”
Ghaddafi has always had an interesting take on the Israel/Palestine situation, and although he’s not a fan of the Israeli government, he’s made it clear that he’s pretty Ok with the Israelis as a people (this was even before one of his sons started dating an Israeli model), and he has a much bigger problem with theocrats like the Saudis and the Iranians.
In this case, however, as much as he means what he says (which I think he does) he is also probably hoping that his recommendation will be taken seriously as a way in which to direct attention towards anything other than Libya.
I should’ve seen the signs. The fact that he’s making public pronouncements again usually means that something has set him off - the situation has changed.
When the list of Middle East “days of rage” first got posted last month the Libyan date for uprising was February 30. That made sense to me, as that was probably the only day of the year that such a thing would be likely in my opinion. That was later revised to Feb 17 by someone who knows how to look at a calendar.
Of course, there have already been some small protests, particularly in some coastal regions, but I wasn’t particularly expecting to see all that much happen. If there’s one guy who knows how to keep things locked down it is our dear Colonel.
(Full disclosure. Frankly, I’ve always been fascinated by Ghaddafi. Yes, he’s a dictator. Yes, he was an enthusiastic sponsor of terrorism throughout the world’s during the 1960s and 70s. Yes, he is directly or indirectly responsible for the deaths of thousands of people both domestically and abroad. Yes, he has a tendency to say things that come across as crazy (though much of it isn’t really as crazy as it sounds). Yes, he did hire Doc Brown to build an a nuclear bomb back in the early ‘80s. I’m not saying that what Qaddafi has done in the past is morally acceptable, but when it comes to being a ruthless dictator, would you rather be known for your crazy outfits and your all-female bodyguard squad, or for butchering almost a quarter of your population or eating your political opponents? Say what you will about the guy, he has style.
That being said, when the rubber hits the road I’m going to throw my lot in with the Libyan people, and not that guy.
So, anyway, here’s what I was working towards – protests are already underway in Libya.
The protests kicked off early in the coastal town of Bengazi two days early, and the hammer-down by the government forces has already begun. The guardian UK is doing an outstanding job of keeping a protest roundup running. I highly recommend them as a way to keep abreast of the situation.
So what’s the score in Libya?
Right now, the capital is quiet except for some staged pro-Ghaddafi rallies. Protests are mostly in Benghazi and Tripoli.
The message that struck me most this morning was the tweet that said, “don’t show up with less than 100 people.”
Every single person protesting on the streets of Libya knows full well that they may not live to see tomorrow. The regime is ruthless. 15 years ago they massacred 1200 political prisoners in three hours because they were protesting for better prison conditions.
The bravery of the people in the streets of Bengazi cannot be overstated. These people are prepared to die, they may even be expecting to.
This, to me, is the wild card. There is an old Persian saying – You cannot leap a chasm with two jumps. If these people are not successful then, like Iran, the regime will spend the next several years eradicating everyone connected to the protests.
Please contact your political representatives today and ask them to bring pressure to bear on Ghaddafi - We may not have leverage with Iran, but we do have some influence with Libya. Please contact as many national news agencies as possible and let them know that the only thing that can keep the people on the streets of Libya alive is if their own voices are heard.
Ghaddafi is not stupid. He is proud of his stature in the African and Arab worlds and he wants to be seen as a reformer. This is the time for him to prove it. If we don’t see some public movement from him on this within the next day or so he plans on playing this grim situation out to the bitter end.
Ghaddafi has always had an interesting take on the Israel/Palestine situation, and although he’s not a fan of the Israeli government, he’s made it clear that he’s pretty Ok with the Israelis as a people (this was even before one of his sons started dating an Israeli model), and he has a much bigger problem with theocrats like the Saudis and the Iranians.
In this case, however, as much as he means what he says (which I think he does) he is also probably hoping that his recommendation will be taken seriously as a way in which to direct attention towards anything other than Libya.
I should’ve seen the signs. The fact that he’s making public pronouncements again usually means that something has set him off - the situation has changed.
When the list of Middle East “days of rage” first got posted last month the Libyan date for uprising was February 30. That made sense to me, as that was probably the only day of the year that such a thing would be likely in my opinion. That was later revised to Feb 17 by someone who knows how to look at a calendar.
Of course, there have already been some small protests, particularly in some coastal regions, but I wasn’t particularly expecting to see all that much happen. If there’s one guy who knows how to keep things locked down it is our dear Colonel.
(Full disclosure. Frankly, I’ve always been fascinated by Ghaddafi. Yes, he’s a dictator. Yes, he was an enthusiastic sponsor of terrorism throughout the world’s during the 1960s and 70s. Yes, he is directly or indirectly responsible for the deaths of thousands of people both domestically and abroad. Yes, he has a tendency to say things that come across as crazy (though much of it isn’t really as crazy as it sounds). Yes, he did hire Doc Brown to build an a nuclear bomb back in the early ‘80s. I’m not saying that what Qaddafi has done in the past is morally acceptable, but when it comes to being a ruthless dictator, would you rather be known for your crazy outfits and your all-female bodyguard squad, or for butchering almost a quarter of your population or eating your political opponents? Say what you will about the guy, he has style.
That being said, when the rubber hits the road I’m going to throw my lot in with the Libyan people, and not that guy.
So, anyway, here’s what I was working towards – protests are already underway in Libya.
The protests kicked off early in the coastal town of Bengazi two days early, and the hammer-down by the government forces has already begun. The guardian UK is doing an outstanding job of keeping a protest roundup running. I highly recommend them as a way to keep abreast of the situation.
So what’s the score in Libya?
Right now, the capital is quiet except for some staged pro-Ghaddafi rallies. Protests are mostly in Benghazi and Tripoli.
The message that struck me most this morning was the tweet that said, “don’t show up with less than 100 people.”
Every single person protesting on the streets of Libya knows full well that they may not live to see tomorrow. The regime is ruthless. 15 years ago they massacred 1200 political prisoners in three hours because they were protesting for better prison conditions.
The bravery of the people in the streets of Bengazi cannot be overstated. These people are prepared to die, they may even be expecting to.
This, to me, is the wild card. There is an old Persian saying – You cannot leap a chasm with two jumps. If these people are not successful then, like Iran, the regime will spend the next several years eradicating everyone connected to the protests.
Please contact your political representatives today and ask them to bring pressure to bear on Ghaddafi - We may not have leverage with Iran, but we do have some influence with Libya. Please contact as many national news agencies as possible and let them know that the only thing that can keep the people on the streets of Libya alive is if their own voices are heard.
Ghaddafi is not stupid. He is proud of his stature in the African and Arab worlds and he wants to be seen as a reformer. This is the time for him to prove it. If we don’t see some public movement from him on this within the next day or so he plans on playing this grim situation out to the bitter end.
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