Wordsworth on Egypt (by way of France)

My friend Nathaniel emailed me this piece from Wordsworth's poem on the French revolution.

***

OH! pleasant exercise of hope and joy!

For mighty were the auxiliars which then stood

Upon our side, we who were strong in love!

Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,

But to be young was very heaven!--Oh! times,

In which the meagre, stale, forbidding ways

Of custom, law, and statute, took at once

The attraction of a country in romance!

When Reason seemed the most to assert her rights,

When most intent on making of herself

A prime Enchantress--to assist the work,

Which then was going forward in her name!

Not favoured spots alone, but the whole earth,

The beauty wore of promise, that which sets

(As at some moment might not be unfelt

Among the bowers of paradise itself)

The budding rose above the rose full blown.

What temper at the prospect did not wake

To happiness unthought of? The inert

Were roused, and lively natures rapt away!

They who had fed their childhood upon dreams,

The playfellows of fancy, who had made

All powers of swiftness, subtilty, and strength

Their ministers,--who in lordly wise had stirred

Among the grandest objects of the sense,

And dealt with whatsoever they found there

As if they had within some lurking right

To wield it;--they, too, who, of gentle mood,

Had watched all gentle motions, and to these

Had fitted their own thoughts, schemers more mild,

And in the region of their peaceful selves;--

Now was it that both found, the meek and lofty

Did both find, helpers to their heart's desire,

And stuff at hand, plastic as they could wish;

Were called upon to exercise their skill,

Not in Utopia, subterranean fields,

Or some secreted island, Heaven knows where!

But in the very world, which is the world

Of all of us,--the place where in the end

We find our happiness, or not at all! 

Terror, nonviolence, and Israel

A few years ago, during grad school I tried to write a paper on the concept of “Nonviolent terrorism”. The scope of the project quickly revealed itself to be far beyond the requirements of the class that I was writing it for, and instead I limited the focus of the paper to the performative aspects of self-immolation. (part one of that paper can be found here, part two and three are forthcoming)

The idea of nonviolent terrorism is one that is largely symbolic – actions that induce fear, chaos, and psychological trauma without causing physical harm to people or infrastructure. Bomb threats are probably the most common form of nonviolent terrorism, but other examples can be found – white powder in envelopes, firecrackers tossed into a tense crowd, psychological warfare through pranks. These things wear on the public psyche until it is like a tightly wound spring or a spooked horse unsure which way to jump - ready to protect itself from a threat whose likelihood cannot be clearly determined and whose severity cannot be calculated.

Nonviolent terrorism seeks to mimic the effects of a terrorist act without utilizing the destructive methods of terrorism. Nonviolent terrorism, however, does not exist seperate from terrorism – in fact, the success of an act of nonviolent terrorism is contingent on it being temporarily indistinguishable from a real act of terrorism. The act draws its potency from the real potential for violent terrorism. Threatening to poison a city’s drinking water can be an act of nonviolent terrorism. Threatening to destroy a city with the death ray from your moon base is something altogether different.

Nonviolent terrorism operates on the premise that the thing you fear hasn’t happened yet, but it might...

Israel is currently undergoing a wave of non-violent terrorism.

Let me be clear – I am not referring to the fear that more Gravads and Katushas will rain in from the Gaza strip, or the fear that a collapsing Lebanese government will become the puppet of Hezbollah, or the fear that the Muslim brotherhood will seize the reins of the fledgling Egyptian political scene and nullify the Israel/Egypt peace treaties.

All of these things are real fears, but none of these are the real fear.

The real fear comes from what we saw in Egypt. Less than a month ago millions of people filled the streets of Egypt, and in the face of police brutality and government force they stood their ground. Certainly there were acts of violence by the Egyptian protesters – clashes between hired baltagi and a public who was unwilling to be driven back, there was rock throwing and car burning in defiance of riot police, and there were a few nights where protesters in Tahrir square were pelted with firebombs and fought back with stones. But overall, it was a largely nonviolent movement, and therein lies the seeds of terror.

Certainly, when it comes to Egypt’s future some Israelis are hopeful and others are suspicious. But underneath it all there is a creeping and un-addressable gnawing fear that transcends concerns regarding the Egyptian people.

It is a fear that something like what we saw in Tahrir square could take place in Israel.

Every action by Hamas, or by the Palestinian Authority, or by the Palestinians themselves whether singly or in groups now brings with it the second-guessing - "Will this be the Mohamed Bouazizi moment?", "Is this the next Khaled Said?", "Could this be the thing that triggers it?"

As I said before, these things wear on the public psyche until it is like a tightly wound spring or a spooked horse unsure which way to jump - ready to protect itself from a threat whose likelihood cannot be clearly determined and whose severity cannot be calculated.

What would happen if 100,000 Palestinian citizens of Israel (AKA “Israeli Arabs”) showed up on Ben Yehuda street in Jerusalem demanding an end to the settlements?

What would happen if thousands of Gazan Palestinians marched from Gaza City and the refugee camps to the Erez and Karni crossings demanding passage to their estranged families in East Jerusalem and the West Bank?

What if the Muslim and Christian residents of Ramallah walked en masse to Ma’ale Adumim to protests the progressive loss of what little land they have left?

Most importantly, what if they did it with their hands empty of anything except for their camera phones?

How could Israel respond? And how long could large-scale human action in Israel stay nonviolent - either on the part of the Israelis or the Palestinians?

Because lurking behind the spectacle of Egypt is the specter of Libya: a population who no longer fear for their own lives facing down a military willing to use deadly force.

There is true terror.

We are Fires in the Night.

The big news today, as far as Libya is concerned (from an American perspective), is president Obama’s comments. Frustrating as it may have been to get little more than silence from the White House for the past several days, the logic behind their actions was solid, and fairly evident to those familiar with State Department procedure. Despite the horrific nature of the events on the ground in Libya, the American president’s primary obligation is the safety of his own citizens, and in this case (given that he was dealing with an individual of obviously unsound mind), it was imperative that the American embassy staff be evacuated before any substantive action could be taken.

If the White House had come out strongly against Gaddafi earlier (while American embassy staff were still on the ground in Tripoli) there was a very real possibility that Gaddafi might retaliate, using State Department employees as leverage, or even as targets for violence. It is worthwhile to note that his comments on Libya came barely minutes after the last plane of Americans had taken off from Tripoli.

Obama’s comments today were probably the ones he wanted to make several days ago, and although they carried with them no overtures of force projection, the way things look on the ground that won’t be necessary anyway.

So, where do things stand?

At this point, it’s pretty obvious that the regime’s timeline is down to its last hours - maybe 24, possibly 48. The regime has been madly shedding diplomats and officials for several days now, and with the end in sight, even the most obstinate and myopic supporters of the regime are probably weighting their options (which, at this point probably aren’t much better than
1. Suicide
2. Death at the hands of an angry mob
3. A public trial for their crimes against the Libyan people.

Frankly, I’d like to see a trial, but that raises an interesting point.

Two days ago I was on the phone with my saintly Quaker grandmother. Although she knew that there was something happening in Libya, she professed ignorance as to the specific details. Given my own compulsive inclination towards exposition and contextualization, I gave her a two-minute summary that covered the scope and scale of the protests, the horrific acts by mercenaries and military, and the inevitability of the regime’s demise.

“At this point,” I said, “Qaddafi will probably go out like Cheaucesceeu or Mussolini, but personally, I’d like to see him in front of an international Court of Justice.”

“Ehh...What good would that do?” She said In an offhand manner. “Maybe one of his soldiers will shoot him.”

Now...the vast majority of the people reading this probably don’t grasp the magnitude of that statement, but when my grandmother - one of the sweetest most peace-loving and nonviolent people I’ve ever known in my life - casually tosses out tacit approval of extrajudicial execution…well…there’s not much more that can be said.

Hey Qaddafi! Even pacifists think you need to be put down like the rabid badger that you are.

***

I’m trying to pull together two more solid and substantive blogs for this weekend, but I can’t guarantee that I’ll get both of them out before Monday. I should get at least one of them out tomorrow, and it’ll be a good one (I think).

I’ll say the same thing this week that I was saying last week...in the same way that Egypt was consuming all of the available “media oxygen” then, Libya is doing the same thing now. Very important things have been happening in many other countries, and they should certainly be addressed…I‘ll try to get there...

***

Just one interesting final point before I conclude this post - the situation in Libya has had a rather interesting and unexpected impact in Venezuela that is addressed here. I highly recommend that you read the article, but to sum up, Hugo Chavez’s state-run media mouthpiece sent a media team to Libya several days ago when the situation was beginning to crest. Because of Chavez’s fairly strong relationship with Qaddafi, the news network painted a picture that was entirely in line with Qaddafi’s personal perception of the situation, but so far detached from reality that it has made them the laughingstock of the Venezuelan population. Although Chavez has built his political career on the gullibility of a large portion of the Venezuelan community, the obvious disconnect between the messaging of the state TV and every other available information source has been comedic, dramatic, and unignorable.

Gaddafi has done us another favor - he has shown Venezuelan state television to be nothing more than government funded liars.

Thanks Gaddafi!

***

More to come tomorrow.

In the meantime, I just found out about Band of Skulls...aren’t they awesome?

Please help the people of Libya

As I've mentioned earlier, it's difficult to watch the horrific events from so far away and feel helpless. For those of you who are looking for something that you can do to help the people of Libya the good folks over at http://www.libyafeb17.com/ provided me with a connection to World Medical Camp of Libya http://www.wmclibya.org/

World Medical Camp Libya
PayPal - No Account Required

I'll keep the paypal button on my sidebar, so please keep the link handy and direct your friends to my page if they mention a desire to help.

We can't give blood, but we can at least give money.

Libya and the wider situation - Updates

Algeria has finally lifted the state of emergency that has existed since the early ‘90s which means that the government’s authority to use the military will, in theory at least, be curtailed. Given that Bouteflika has been using the military against dissidents for 20 years, it remains to be seen whether ending emergency powers will actually change anything.

“Gaddafi’s gift”, as I called it on Wednesday, may be paying off in Yemen, where after multiple deaths the President actually issued an order for the military to protect the protesters. We’ll see how long it lasts.

The violence against protesters in Bahrain also seems to have paused for the moment, as the various parties gather themselves for the next round of who knows what.

The killing is done for now, but it is too early to tell if the cold peace between the regime and the dissidents will last and, if so, how long. Bahrain’s revolution is not over, but its outcome is far from decided.

Iran seems grim. The protests aren’t really getting as much traction as they need to, and without the support of the workers unions and the merchants it doesn’t look good for them. Some rather sobering analysis here. An interesting election took place yesterday for the leadership of Iran's chamber of commerce which may play out in some interesting long-term ways as Iranian business leaders continue to flex and grow their power.

Saudi Arabia – After several weeks of surgery and convalescence in Europe and Morocco, King Abdullah returned home and showered his citizens with $37,000,000,000 in gifts/benefits in a move that, frankly, comes across as a cheap way of paying off his citizens to keep them happy. And there’s plenty more money where that came from, particularly given that oil prices are now over $120 a barrel. (On that note, Tom Friedman, whose NYT columns have been pretty hit-or-miss for quite some time, finally had a really good one this week)

Overall, even if countries like Saudi Arabia, Syria, Morocco and Jordan only see minor reforms in the aftermath of Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya, it’s still a positive step forward. Rights, once given, are harder to take away, and every crack in the façade is a step closer to regime collapse.

In Israel there were rocket attacks from Gaza into Be'er Sheva yesterday, which fortunately only damaged a building and didn’t take any lives. As expected, the IDF response was swift and unequivocal. I’ll be putting up a post on Israel in a day or two, so I’m not going to get too deeply into that right now.

The situation in Libya can’t last much longer. A constitutional committee is underway in Benghazi and despite the viciousness of Gaddafi’s actions his troops are rapidly losing ground. His personal Envoy just fled to Egypt to beg for asylum and there are rumors of a split in the Khamees brigade, which (if true) would mean that it’s pretty much over for Brother Leader.

End of the line, G.

(Stay tuned to http://www.libyafeb17.com/ for continual updates)

I’ve had some interesting conversations about US intervention in Libya, and as much as a no-fly zone would be nice, it unfortunately isn’t as simple or easy as it sounds. Some good analysis here and here. As shocking and horrifying as the reports of planes firing on crowds of people is, the vast majority of the killing has been done on the ground with soldiers, mercenaries, tanks, and artillery. To do something really effective would require much more than keeping the government’s planes on the ground, and if this was a more protracted event intervention would probably be a realistic option but it looks to be just about over.

So what can we do? For one, Libya will need tremendous amounts of medical assistance once this ends (they actually need it now, but their #1 priority is to get rid of Gaddafi). I’m in the process of contacting some relief and aid agencies and some Libyans to see if we can coordinate or participate in some assistance activities – I’ll keep you posted.

Gaddafi’s gift to the Middle East.

It’s a funny thing, but Gaddafi has really done us all a favor here.

As I said yesterday, he has secured himself a place on the list of history’s most hated leaders. Like a predator who shits in the carcass of his prey to spoil the meat for those who come after him, Gaddafi has done his best to ruin his country - one world or none, you might say.

I will not waste print with accusations of malfeasance - there will be plenty of time for that in the days and weeks to come. Instead I want to extend a measure of thanks to him on behalf of the Middle East.

Thank you Gaddafi.

Thank you for reminding the other dictators what tyranny looks like to the rest of the world.

Many years ago you made yourself into an icon of sociopathic megalomania - this week you have taken that to it’s logical conclusion.

Sure, the scale of your destruction won’t reach the magnitude of Pol Pot, or Mao, or Stalin, or Mussolini, or the other butchers of the 20th century. What will set you apart from them is the extent to which it is being watched by the world.

You unleashed ruthless foreign mercenaries on your own people and within hours the pictures of the dead and wounded were spread across the internet.

You made incoherent mumbling denunciations from underneath an umbrella on a rainy night and the whole world was mocking you before the sun was up the next day.

It’s not what you did, it’s that we all saw it as it happened.
You are now a symbol of what not to do.

If, for example, the people of Syria start to flood the streets of Damascus demanding their dignity and their basic freedoms, Bashar al-Assad will have to choose his course of action carefully lest he be labeled "another Gaddafi"

The Iranian government must now step a bit more gingerly when dealing with their own angry youth in order to distinguish themselves from the wickedness of the Libyan regime.

Bahrain and Yemen now have to second guess the potential repercussions from their own acts of violence against their subjects and citizens.

Force is no longer a reliable guarantee of regime survival, and brutality is harder and harder to enact unnoticed. The cost of control has risen sharply over the past few days.

Gaddafi has given the world, and particularly the Middle East, a striking lesson in what no longer works.

(Minor follow-up - congratulations Brother Leader, the statisticians over at fivethirtyeight.com have determined you to be the #1 ranked dictator)

Minor update

Lots of people doing excellent updates now - I'll be posting some analysis later today when I get home.

In the meantime, you may find today's post at the Arabist interesting.

He links to a continuously updated google map tracking the status of the various Libyan towns and cities and whether they are government or protester controlled.

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&msa=0&msid=208005345448417215163.00049cf3a2cdebe5bd17f